This year’s United States of America’s presidential election race is quite tight. But it is not looking particularly good for Donald Trump at this moment. He is trailing in North Carolina, a state he carried four years ago, with over 69% of votes reported. He’s also trailing in Ohio with over 50 percent votes reported. He can not afford to lose those two states unless of course, he can flip some other states red. There’s no evidence of that yet.
As it stands now, Joe Biden is on the path to get a total of 243 Electoral College votes against 295 for Trump. This seems like the likely final result to me. My analysis is simple. Hillary won a total of 232 votes in 2016 against 306 for Trump.
For Biden to perform better than Trump, he must wrestle some states from Trump. If he maintains the same states that Hillary won, then he might equally get the same 232 votes that she got.
So far Biden has been able to win every state that Hillary won, in addition to Arizona which he wrestled from Trump. Arizona provides 11 more Electoral College votes, which would put Biden at 243, 11 votes better than Hillary. But it is not enough. Biden has to win at least two additional swing states to secure 270.
Right now there are about some five states that Trump won in 2016 that are up for grabs because they have not yet been called. These are North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump commands sizable leads in all of them.
In North Carolina, 94% of the votes have been reported. Trump holds over 100,000 advantage. He won with a similar margin in 2016. Also in Georgia, 94% of votes have been reported. Trump leads by over 100,000 votes. He won it by a similar margin in 2016. In Wisconsin also, 94% of votes are in.
Trump leads by about 120,000. In 2016, he won by just about 30,000 votes. The 94% of figures out coupled with the lessons from last elections make you wonder how Biden is going to overturn these.
That means he must necessarily win Michigan and Pennsylvania. And with 77% votes reported in Pennsylvania, Trump leads with nearly 700,000 votes. Interestingly, Trump already got the figures he had in 2016 there, when he won by a whisker. Can the 23% percent that’s yet to be called help Biden clawback completely about 700,000 votes? Seems a long shot for me.
There is more hope for Biden in Michigan however. With 64% of votes reported, he’s trailing by about 200,000 votes. In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly grabbed this state with about 11,000 votes. With some 37% more votes to be called and with Democrats resting their hopes on mail-in ballots, they can hope to claw that deficit.
But can they, when Trump could still win by a couple of votes? But even if he carries Michigan, it would not be enough, without another state in addition.
To me, this is how to determine the outcome of these elections, not the electoral college scoreboard. If all these factors are taken into account, the 270 Electoral College votes look a long shot for Biden right now. He’ll get a minimum of 243, for sure. Whatever happens, this election will be one of the closers in history. But Trump looks set to carry the day.